Guide · 7 min read
Arbitrage betting by sport: where sure bets appear and where the traps are
The 1/odds maths is the same in every sport. What changes is how many outcomes a market has and how bookmakers settle it when a match goes to overtime, a player retires or a game is abandoned. Those rules decide whether a sure bet really covers every result.
Updated 22 October 2026
Contents
Football: many markets, goal lines and handicaps
Football has the most markets and therefore the most opportunities. Besides 1X2 there are double chance, draw no bet, over/under, both teams to score and Asian handicaps, for every match from the Austrian Bundesliga down to third divisions in countries hardly anyone follows.
- Playing time. Almost all markets are settled on regulation time including stoppage time. Cup ties with extra time also have a "to qualify" market. Never combine 1X2 after 90 minutes with "to qualify".
- Quarter lines. Over/under 2.25 or a −0.75 handicap are settled half won or half refunded. The other side must be exactly the same line.
- Abandoned and postponed matches. Bookmakers differ on how long a postponed match still counts and whether an abandoned match is settled on the score at the time. Two different rules can leave one bet voided and the other settled.
The three-outcome variants, and how double chance and draw no bet cover a 1X2 market, are explained in three-way arbitrage. Goal lines also lend themselves to middles, covered in what is a middle?
Tennis: two outcomes, but retirement rules
Tennis is the classic sure-bet sport: there is no draw, so two bets are enough. Add many tournaments, including small Challenger and ITF events, where prices can be far apart.
The biggest risk is a player retiring during the match. Bookmakers handle this differently. Three versions are common:
- The bet is void if the match is not completed.
- The bet stands if at least one set has been completed; otherwise it is void.
- The player who progresses wins, whenever the other retires.
You stake €250 on Player A at Bookmaker 1 (rule: the player who progresses wins) and €250 on Player B at Bookmaker 2 (rule: void if the match is not completed). A retires in the first set. Bookmaker 1 settles B as the winner, so your bet on A loses. Bookmaker 2 voids the match, so you only get your €250 on B back. Result: −€250 instead of a small plus.
So in tennis, only combine bookmakers with the same retirement rule, or accept that risk knowingly. The rule is in the bookmaker's betting rules, usually in the tennis section. A walkover before the start leads to a void at practically every bookmaker.
Ice hockey: regulation time versus overtime
Ice hockey is popular in Austria and even more so in Slovakia, where the local bookmakers offer many markets on the Slovak Extraliga, and Austrian bookmakers cover the ICE Hockey League in depth. The key rule: 1X2 is settled after 60 minutes; the two-way match winner includes overtime and the shootout. Over/under and handicaps also exist in both versions.
If the game is level after 60 minutes and you have combined 1X2 with a match winner including overtime, both bets can lose. The worked case is in three-way arbitrage. For every ice hockey sure bet, read the market name first: "regulation time", "60 minutes", "including overtime" or "including shootout".
For Slovak players there is one more point. Slovak-licensed bookmakers work with relatively high margins, so sure bets between them alone are rare. Where they do appear, it is usually because one Slovak book is out of line on a single outcome compared with the wider market, and ice hockey, with its many markets, is where that happens most.
Basketball: overtime usually included
At most bookmakers the match winner, handicap and over/under in basketball include overtime. That makes basketball a clean two-way sport for sure bets. There are exceptions:
- Some bookmakers offer a three-way bet (1X2) on regulation time. Never combine it with a match winner including overtime.
- Quarter and half markets naturally don't include overtime.
- Points lines move quickly; check that both sides really are the same line, for example 162.5 and not 163.5.
Handball, volleyball and esports
Handball has a draw like football, and 1X2 is settled on regulation time. In knockout matches with extra time and seven-metre throws, the same care applies as in ice hockey. Handicap lines are wide, so look closely at the half-goal line.
Volleyball has no draw; the match winner has two outcomes. The traps are set handicaps and points over/under, where some bookmakers treat the tie-break differently, and the rules for abandoned matches.
Esports offers many sure bets, because smaller tournaments are watched closely by few bookmakers. On the other hand limits are low and the rules vary: what happens after a walkover, a substitute player or a replayed game? The difference between "map winner" and "match winner" is easy to miss. Esports sure bets are not a good place to start.
Overview: outcomes, traps and rule differences
| Sport | Outcomes (match winner) | Typical trap | What to check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 3 (1X2) | 90 minutes versus "to qualify" | Playing time, quarter lines, abandonment rules |
| Tennis | 2 | A player retires | Retirement rule at both bookmakers |
| Ice hockey | 3 (60 min.) or 2 (incl. overtime) | 1X2 combined with match winner incl. overtime | Read the market name carefully |
| Basketball | 2 (usually incl. overtime) | Three-way on regulation time | Whether overtime counts, points line |
| Handball | 3 (1X2) | Knockout matches with extra time | Playing time, half-goal line |
| Volleyball | 2 | Set and points markets, tie-break | Abandonment rules |
| Esports | 2 (per map or match) | Map versus match, walkover | Tournament rules, low limits |
Which sport brings the most sure bets depends less on the sport than on your bookmakers. Football and tennis have the most matches and markets, and so the most opportunities. In Slovakia, ice hockey joins them, because the local bookmakers offer especially many markets there. To check a single sure bet, use the arbitrage calculator; for what can still go wrong once the maths works, read arbitrage betting risks.
Frequently asked questions
Which sport has the most sure bets?
Usually football and tennis, because they have the most matches and markets. How many you actually find depends mainly on which bookmakers you have accounts with.
Are tennis sure bets risky?
The biggest risk is a player retiring. Bookmakers settle that differently: void, settled after a completed set, or in favour of the player who progresses. Only combine bookmakers with the same rule.
What happens when a match goes to overtime?
It depends on the market. 1X2 in football, ice hockey and handball is settled on regulation time; the ice hockey match winner and most basketball markets include overtime. Only combine markets with the same rule.
Are esports arbs worth it?
There are many, because smaller tournaments are watched less closely. On the other hand limits are low and the rules on walkovers, substitutes and map versus match bets vary. Not the place to start.
Sources
- Regierungspräsidium Darmstadt: permitted ice hockey betting markets (in German)
- Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL): permitted basketball betting markets (in German)
- IIHF: Rules and Regulations
- ÚRHH (Slovak Gambling Regulatory Authority): licensed online operators (in Slovak)
As of October 2026. Bookmakers' rules, odds and offers change; their current terms and betting rules always apply.
Betting involves risk, even with sure bets: prices move, bets get voided, accounts get limited. Only use money you can do without. Our responsible gambling page lists free help in Austria and Germany.
Information, not betting, legal or tax advice. 18+.