Guide · 8 min read
Arbitrage betting as a side income: the honest calculation
Can sure betting add something to your income? For some people, a little, for a while. This page shows the calculation behind that sentence, with every assumption next to the number, so you can replace ours with your own. It is an illustration, not a promise.
Updated 22 October 2026
Contents
The honest calculation: stakes × margin − costs
A sure bet returns a small percentage of what you stake, usually 0.5 to 2% before the event starts, often below 1%. So what matters is not how much money you have but how much you stake in a month:
- Stakes per month. Money is tied up until a bet settles, usually one to three days. Then you can use it again. In our model the same euro is staked about 6.5 times a month (26 active days, about 60% of the money usable at any time because balances drift between bookmakers, about 2.4 days tied up per bet).
- Realised margin. Listings show 0.5 to 2%; you realise less, because prices move and bets get voided. Plan with about 1% until your own records say otherwise, and 0.7% for a cautious view.
- Costs. Software (ArbVantage is €97 a month), any deposit and withdrawal fees, and a betting fee where a bookmaker passes one on.
A simple check: to cover €97 at a 1% margin you need about €9,700 in stakes a month. Below that you pay more than you earn.
A modest example with €3,000, assumptions included
€3,000 at two bookmakers with live odds (what an Austrian can use in our feed today), pre-match sure bets only, at most €600 per sure bet. It is the same model as the calculator on our homepage.
| Case | Assumptions | Stakes per month | Before the fee | After the €97 fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typical month | 1% margin, about 31 sure bets of €600 | ~€18,700 | ~€190 | ~+€93 |
| Good month | 1.2% margin, more opportunities, stakes up to €700 | ~€25,000 | ~€300 | ~+€203 |
| Cautious | 0.7% margin, fewer opportunities, money tied up longer | ~€6,600 | ~€50 | ~−€47 |
| After limits | as cautious, stakes of at most €200, 30% less usable money | ~€2,000 | ~€10 | ~−€87 |
This is an example, not a promise. It assumes every leg is accepted at the shown odds and stands. Results vary and can be negative: a single void where the other leg loses costs about €300 in this scenario, more than a typical month of margin. With two bookmakers, a cautious month already ends below zero after the fee. Over time, the "after limits" row tends to become the normal case rather than the exception.
What would €1,000 a month take?
What would €1,000 a month take? At a 1% average margin, about €100,000 in stakes a month: roughly 167 sure bets of €600, more than five a day. Most people never get there, because bookmakers limit winning accounts and there aren't that many sure bets at their bookmakers. Use the calculator with your own numbers.
Time per week
The model assumes about 15–20 minutes a day at €2,000, roughly two hours a week:
- about four minutes per sure bet to check the prices and slips and place both legs;
- about ten minutes a day to review balances and top up accounts;
- one to two hours every week or two for withdrawals, moving money and records.
Sure bets appear at all hours and often last only minutes. Phone alerts help, but you need time when they come. If you only have weekends, you will stake much less.
What sets the ceiling
More money doesn't bring more without limit. The lowest of these decides:
- Limits. Bookmakers cut the stakes of winning accounts, at some bookmakers within weeks, at most within months. Over time this is the hardest ceiling. See bookmaker limits.
- Capital. A sure bet needs balances at two or three bookmakers at once. See starting bankroll and bankroll management.
- Number of accounts. More bookmakers mean more opportunities, but also more scattered money. You may have one account per bookmaker, in your own name. See how many bookmaker accounts.
- Opportunities. A sure bet only exists between two of your bookmakers with live odds. With two of them, more money stops helping at about €3,000 in our model; more bookmakers help only once money is no longer the limit.
Fees, betting tax and income tax
- Austrian Wettgebühr. Since 1 April 2025, 5% of the stake. Most bookmakers absorb it, some pass it on. At those, a 1–2% sure bet is almost always negative; only use the price after the deduction. Worked example in the Austria betting tax guide.
- Payment fees. Some bookmakers charge for withdrawals beyond a free number. Bundle withdrawals.
- Income tax in Austria. Winnings from private sports betting are generally not subject to income tax. Betting on a large scale, systematically and long-term can be judged differently; ask a tax adviser if that may apply to you.
- Income tax in Slovakia. Winnings from operators licensed by ÚRHH are, under the usual reading, exempt from income tax; winnings from unlicensed operators may be treated differently. Check with a tax adviser.
- Elsewhere. Rules differ by country; see tax and legality. None of this is tax advice.
Why it stays work
Sure betting is not income that runs without you. You place every bet, you check every price, and every mistake is yours. Add accounts that get limited and quiet spells with few opportunities. What you have is a side project with effort, risk and a ceiling, not a salary.
Betting is never a way out of money problems either. Only use money you can do without: not rent, loan repayments or bills.
When to stop
- Your records show, over two or three months, a realised margin that doesn't cover your costs.
- The bookmakers that appear most often in your sure bets only accept small stakes.
- You stake more than planned to make up for a loss.
- You keep thinking about open bets, or hide your betting from others.
The last two are no longer about the numbers but about you. Our responsible gambling page lists free, confidential help.
Frequently asked questions
How much time does arbitrage betting take per week?
Our model assumes about 15–20 minutes a day at €2,000, roughly two hours a week: about four minutes per sure bet and a look at the feed, plus reviewing balances, topping up accounts and keeping records. With a much larger bankroll and more bookmakers, up to about three quarters of an hour a day.
Can arbitrage betting replace a job?
For the vast majority, no. Limits cap how much each account accepts, and results vary and can be negative. Treat it as a side project with money you can do without.
Do I have to pay tax on sure bet winnings?
In Austria, winnings from private sports betting are generally not subject to income tax; in Slovakia, winnings from ÚRHH-licensed operators are generally exempt. Large-scale, systematic betting can be judged differently, so ask a tax adviser. This is not tax advice.
What does ArbVantage cost compared with the result?
The subscription is €97 a month. At a 1% realised margin you need about €9,700 in stakes a month to cover it. With less than about €1,500 in capital, even a typical month in our calculator doesn't cover the subscription, and a cautious month still ends below zero at €2,000.
Sources
- Unternehmensserviceportal (USP): Wettgebührenabrechnung (in German)
- RIS: Gebührengesetz 1957, § 33 TP 17 (bets) (in German)
- RIS: Einkommensteuergesetz 1988, § 2 (types of income) (in German)
- ÚRHH: legal online gambling and betting websites in Slovakia (in Slovak)
- Spielsuchthilfe: advice on problem gambling (Austria) (in German)
As of October 2026, checked against the linked sources. Not legal, tax or betting advice.
Betting involves risk, even with sure bets: prices move, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only use money you can do without. Our responsible gambling page lists free help.
Not betting advice. 18+. Betting involves risk. See our disclaimer.