Arbitrage odds changed or one leg failed: damage control step by step

The three cases: odds dropped, bet rejected, stake partly accepted

A sure bet only works if every leg is accepted at the odds you calculated with. Most of the time that happens. When it doesn't, it is almost always one of three situations:

• The odds dropped. Between seeing the opportunity and pressing "Place bet", the bookmaker moved its price. The bet slip says the odds have changed and offers you the new, lower price.
• The bet was rejected. The market was suspended, the event started, or the bookmaker simply declined the bet, often without a reason.
• The stake was only partly accepted. You asked for €441 and the bookmaker accepted €250, or it came back with a counter-offer at a lower maximum stake.

In all three cases you now hold an open bet that isn't covered. The first rule: don't panic, but don't wait either. Prices keep moving, and often in the direction that hurts you, because the same information that moved one bookmaker is now reaching the others.

Your options right now

1. Take the lower odds. If the price dropped only a little, accepting it is usually the simplest fix. You give up part of the margin or end up slightly negative, but you are covered.
2. Cover the outcome at another bookmaker. One of your other accounts may offer a better price on the same outcome right now. Check that the market and settlement rules really match, for example regular time only versus including extra time.
3. Cover only what is missing. After a partial acceptance, you cover the remaining part elsewhere (see below).
4. Leave the bet open. You then hold an ordinary single bet with full risk: you either win the whole payout or lose the whole stake. We don't recommend it, because that is exactly the risk the sure bet was meant to remove.

The maths: cut the loss or save the profit

Everything depends on one number: the break-even odds. These are the lowest odds at which you can still cover the open bet without losing money.

open payout = stake₁ × odds₁
hedge stake = open payout / new odds
break-even odds = open payout / (open payout − stake₁)

A few hundredths of a point decide whether you finish slightly up or slightly down. Either way, a small, fixed result is almost always better than an open €400 risk you never intended to take.

Uneven hedging. You can also push the whole loss onto one side. Staking exactly 400 / 0.85 = €470.59 at 1.85 makes the Under result break even (€0.00) and the Over result −€10.59. An even hedge is usually the better choice, because then your result no longer depends on the match at all.

If the second leg was rejected outright and Bookmaker C still offers 1.88, the calculation is the same: 860 / 1.88 = €457.45, a result of about +€2.55.

Austria: watch the Wettgebühr. If the bookmaker you hedge with passes on the 5% Austrian betting fee, the effective price is lower than the one on the screen. Our guide to the Austrian betting tax shows how to account for it.

Assumptions: decimal odds, every bet fully accepted at the stated odds and not voided, no betting fee unless mentioned, amounts rounded to the cent. Real results can differ and can be negative.

Partial acceptance: cover only what is missing

If a bookmaker accepts only part of your stake, cover only the missing part of the payout. In the example above, Bookmaker B accepts just €250 at 1.95:

• Already covered: 250 × 1.95 = €487.50.
• Still missing: 860 − 487.50 = €372.50 of payout.
• At Bookmaker C at 1.90: 372.50 / 1.90 = €196.05.

Total staked: 400 + 250 + 196.05 = €846.05. Each outcome returns €860, a result of about +€13.95 instead of the planned +€18.97. Don't try to squeeze the rest in at the same bookmaker with several small bets: that pattern stands out and is often rejected as well.

Step by step

1. Check what was accepted. Open the bet slip or bet history of the first leg, confirm stake and odds, and note what happened to the second: rejected, new odds or partial acceptance.
2. Work out the break-even odds. Divide the open payout by the open payout minus your stake. Above that price the hedge ends in profit, below it in a small loss.
3. Find the best available price. Check every bookmaker you hold an account with, including the original one at its new price, and make sure the market and rules are identical.
4. Place the hedge. Stake the open payout divided by the new odds. After a partial acceptance, cover only the missing part.
5. Record everything. Log every bet with the odds and stakes that were actually accepted, so your results stay accurate.

In ArbVantage, open the bet and choose "Odds changed or bet rejected?". You tick which legs went through, enter the new odds or pick another of your bookmakers, and the app works out the hedge stake. You can follow the same maths yourself in our guide to splitting sure-bet stakes.

Why the riskier leg goes first

Always place the leg that is most likely to go wrong first. That is usually:

• the bookmaker that changes prices fastest or rejects bets most often,
• the leg with the higher odds, because longer prices move more,
• the bookmaker with the lower maximum stake.

If something goes wrong there, you have risked nothing yet and simply skip the opportunity. If the first leg is accepted, place the second immediately, without doing anything else in between. ArbVantage marks the leg to place first on every sure bet.

Prevention: data age and odds-change settings

• Check how old the odds are. The older a price in a list of opportunities, the more likely it has already moved. Compare the odds on the bet slip with the ones you calculated with before you confirm.
• Don't accept odds changes automatically. Many bookmakers have a bet-slip or account setting such as "Accept odds changes". For sure bets, "never" or "only higher odds" is safer: you notice the change before the bet goes through at a worse price.
• Skip very thin margins. At a 0.5% margin, a tiny price move is enough to turn the bet negative. A margin of 1.5 to 2% leaves room for a small drop.
• Go easy on live bets. In-play prices change by the second, and many bookmakers delay accepting live bets for a few seconds.
• Know your maximum stakes. If you know a bookmaker accepts only small stakes on side markets, plan the sure bet around that amount from the start.

Voided bets and the way bookmakers react to winning accounts are covered in our guide to bookmaker limits, including bets voided at obvious wrong prices. If round stakes help you place faster, see rounding arbitrage stakes.

FAQ

Which leg of a sure bet should I place first?

The riskier one: at the bookmaker that changes prices fastest or rejects bets most often, usually the leg with the higher odds or the lower maximum stake. Once it is accepted, place the second leg straight away.

Should I just leave the open bet running?

Usually not. Without a covering bet you hold an ordinary single bet with full risk. A small, fixed loss from hedging at slightly worse odds is usually better than the chance of losing the whole stake.

What do I do if my stake was only partly accepted?

Work out how much of the payout is already covered and hedge only the rest, ideally at another bookmaker. Stake for the rest = missing payout divided by the odds.

How do I calculate the odds at which I can hedge without a loss?

Break-even odds = payout of the open bet divided by (payout minus stake). For €400 at 2.15 that is 860 / 460 = 1.87. Any higher price for the hedge ends in profit.

Sources

• Wikipedia: Arbitrage betting (principle and risks)
• RIS: Gebührengesetz 1957, § 33 TP 17 (Austrian betting fee)

As of October 2026. The calculations are illustrations under the stated assumptions. Not betting, legal or tax advice. 18+.

Betting involves risk, sure bets included: odds move, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only stake money you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, our responsible gambling page lists free help in Austria and Germany.