Calculator guide · 7 min read
Betting strike rate: how often you need to win to break even
"I win 70% of my bets" sounds impressive. Whether it means anything depends entirely on the odds. This guide gives you the one formula that turns any price into the strike rate you need, a table and a mini calculator, and shows why a high hit rate can still lose money.
Updated 22 October 2026
Contents
Mini calculator: break-even strike rate
Enter a price. The probability the calculator shows is exactly the strike rate you need at that price, over the long run, to neither win nor lose. Tick the box to see what happens if the bookmaker passes Austria's 5% betting fee on to you.
Decimal odds above 1, e.g. 1.90
The formula: 1 / odds
With decimal odds, the format used in Austria, Germany and Slovakia, the break-even strike rate is simply the reciprocal of the price:
Break-even strike rate = 1 / odds
Odds 1.90 → 1 / 1.90 = 0.526 = 52.6%
Odds 2.50 → 1 / 2.50 = 0.400 = 40.0%
To see why, take 100 bets of €10 each at odds of 1.90. You stake €1,000 in total. Each winner returns €19. With 53 winners you get back 53 × €19 = €1,007, a €7 profit. With 52 winners it is 52 × €19 = €988, a €12 loss. The break-even point lies in between, at 52.6 winners out of 100.
The same number is called the implied probability: the chance the bookmaker's price "contains". Because every price includes a margin, the true probability is usually a little lower. How the margin works is in bookmaker margin and overround.
Table: odds and break-even strike rate
The right-hand column applies if the bookmaker deducts the 5% betting fee from the stake. That works like a price 5% lower (odds × 0.95).
| Odds | Break-even strike rate | With 5% fee |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | 83.3% | 87.7% |
| 1.30 | 76.9% | 81.0% |
| 1.40 | 71.4% | 75.2% |
| 1.50 | 66.7% | 70.2% |
| 1.70 | 58.8% | 61.9% |
| 1.90 | 52.6% | 55.4% |
| 2.00 | 50.0% | 52.6% |
| 2.50 | 40.0% | 42.1% |
| 3.00 | 33.3% | 35.1% |
| 4.00 | 25.0% | 26.3% |
The table shows why short prices are deceptive: at 1.20 you need to win more than five bets out of six just to break even. A single loss wipes out the profit from five winners.
Why a 70% strike rate can lose money
Two made-up bettors, each with 100 bets of €10, so €1,000 staked:
| Bettor A | Bettor B | |
|---|---|---|
| Odds of every bet | 1.35 | 2.80 |
| Strike rate | 70% | 40% |
| Break-even (1 / odds) | 74.1% | 35.7% |
| Returned | 70 × €13.50 = €945 | 40 × €28 = €1,120 |
| Result | −€55 (−5.5%) | +€120 (+12%) |
Bettor A wins almost twice as often and still loses, because his prices demand 74.1%. Bettor B wins less often but stays above his threshold. Note that this is arithmetic, not a typical result: staying above the threshold over time is hard, because bookmakers price well and build in a margin. A high strike rate often just means someone backs a lot of favourites at short prices.
If your bets have different prices, the average isn't quite enough. Simply add up everything returned and compare it with the sum of the stakes, which is easiest if you track your bets.
The effect of the Austrian betting fee
In Austria a betting fee of 5% of the stake applies to sports bets. Some bookmakers absorb it, others deduct it from the stake or the winnings. If it comes off the stake, only €9.50 of a €10 bet is actually wagered. At odds of 1.90 a winner returns €18.05. That equals a price of 1.805, and the break-even strike rate rises from 52.6% to 55.4%. Which bookmakers do what is covered in Austria betting tax.
How many bets does a strike rate need?
A strike rate from 20 tips says almost nothing. Chance swings a lot. As a rule of thumb, the standard deviation of a strike rate is √(p × (1 − p) / n), where p is the true strike rate and n the number of bets.
- 100 bets, true strike rate 70%: √(0.7 × 0.3 / 100) ≈ 4.6 percentage points. About 95% of results land between roughly 61% and 79%, by chance alone.
- 1,000 bets: √(0.7 × 0.3 / 1000) ≈ 1.45 percentage points. The range shrinks to about ±3 points.
If someone shows you a 75% strike rate from 40 tips, that is consistent with a tipster who really wins 65% and loses money at their prices. More in betting variance and how to verify a tipster.
Strike rate, expected value and yield
The strike rate is only one ingredient. Two other measures connect it to the result:
- Expected value (EV) per euro staked = probability × odds − 1. For bettor A: 0.70 × 1.35 − 1 = −0.055, so −5.5 cents per euro. EV is an expectation before the bet and depends on how well your probability is estimated.
- Yield = profit / total staked. With the same price on every bet, yield = strike rate × odds − 1. Bettor A: −5.5%; bettor B: 0.40 × 2.80 − 1 = +12%. Yield is the actual result after the bets.
If your strike rate sits exactly at 1 / odds, EV and yield are zero. Every percentage point above is your edge; every point below is a loss.
Sure bets: an approach without a strike rate
A sure bet doesn't need a strike rate, because you don't pick one outcome. You back every outcome, each at the bookmaker with the highest price. Instead of "how often do I win?", the question is: is the sum of the reciprocals below 1?
Tennis, two outcomes. Bookmaker A: player 1 at 2.05. Bookmaker B: player 2 at 2.02.
1 / 2.05 + 1 / 2.02 = 0.4878 + 0.4950 = 0.9828, below 1.
With €100 in total: €49.63 on player 1 and €50.37 on player 2. Either outcome returns about €101.75, so roughly +€1.75.
That only holds if both bets are accepted at the prices shown and both stand. Odds change, bets get voided and bookmakers limit winning accounts. The margin is small, and one mistake can eat it quickly. The honest list is in arbitrage betting risks.
FAQ
What strike rate do I need at odds of 2.00?
50 percent. The break-even strike rate is 1 divided by the odds, so 1 / 2.00 = 0.50. If the bookmaker passes the 5 percent Austrian betting fee on to you by deducting it from the stake, you need about 52.6 percent.
Is a 70 percent strike rate good?
It depends on the odds. At 1.35 you need 74.1 percent to break even, so 70 percent means a loss of about 5.5 percent of stakes. At 1.50, 70 percent is just above the 66.7 percent threshold.
How many bets do I need before a strike rate means something?
Several hundred. With 100 bets and a true strike rate of 70 percent, chance alone easily puts the result anywhere between about 61 and 79 percent. Only at around 1,000 bets does that range shrink to about plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Do I need a strike rate for sure bets?
No. With a sure bet you back every outcome at different bookmakers, so one bet wins as long as all bets are accepted at the prices shown and stand. What matters is the sum of the reciprocals of the odds. Price changes, voids and limits remain risks.
Sources
- Levitt, S. D. (2004): Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets? The Economic Journal 114
- Štrumbelj, E. (2014): On determining probability forecasts from betting odds. International Journal of Forecasting 30(4)
- Forrest, D., Goddard, J., Simmons, R. (2005): Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football. International Journal of Forecasting 21(3), 551–564
- RIS: Gebührengesetz 1957, § 33 TP 17 (Austrian betting fee)
- Unternehmensserviceportal (USP): Wettgebührenabrechnung
As of October 2026. The calculations are illustrations under the stated assumptions. Not betting, legal or tax advice. 18+.
Betting involves risk, sure bets included: odds move, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only stake money you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, our responsible gambling page lists free help in Austria and Germany.