Cash out vs hedging: which locks in more?

How cash-out is priced

When you cash out, the bookmaker buys your open bet back from you, at a price it sets itself. Bookmakers do not publish the exact formula, but in principle it works like this:

cash-out ≈ potential return × current chance of winning × (1 − deduction)

The bookmaker takes the current chance of winning from its own live odds, which already contain its margin. On top of that there is often an extra deduction. The cash-out is therefore usually below the fair value of your bet. How far below, you only see when you compare it with an alternative.

Hedging at another bookmaker

The alternative is a counter-bet (a hedge) on the other outcome or outcomes, ideally at another bookmaker with better odds. Like a cash-out, it locks in a result; unlike a cash-out, you control the price.

The drawbacks: you need a second account, money for the hedge stake, and a price that is still available. In-play, markets are often suspended for a few seconds, and odds can move before your bet is accepted.

The hedge formula

To get the same result whichever way it goes, stake enough on the other side that its return equals the potential return of your open bet:

hedge stake = potential return ÷ hedge odds locked-in result from now = potential return − hedge stake

If the market has more than two outcomes (football 1X2), split the hedge across the remaining outcomes or use a double chance market. The stakes then work like a three-way sure bet; the split is explained in sure betting.

Worked example: an accumulator before the last leg

How much margin is in the offer? From the two prices you can estimate a fair probability for the last leg: (1/2.50) ÷ (1/2.50 + 1/1.70) = 0.400 ÷ 0.988 ≈ 40.5%. The fair value of the bet would then be €400 × 0.405 ≈ €161.90. The €150 cash-out is about 7% below that. Removing the margin from a pair of odds is the same step as in betting basics.

In Austria, include the 5% betting fee if the second bookmaker passes it on. The fee comes off the hedge's payout, so you work with odds of 1.70 × 0.95 = 1.615: the hedge stake rises to €400 ÷ 1.615 = €247.68 and the locked-in result falls to €400 − €247.68 = €152.32. The lead over the cash-out shrinks to about €2. Check the bet slip before you hedge.

When the cash-out is the better choice

A cash-out is never free, but it can still be the better option:

• No second account or no spare money. In the example the hedge ties up €235. Without that money, the cash-out is the only way to lock in.
• Several open legs. With three games still open, you would have to coordinate several hedges. The cash-out does it in one step, usually with a bigger deduction.
• Suspended markets. If the other side is not open anywhere, only the cash-out remains (if that is not suspended too).
• No good hedge price. If the best price on the other side is worse than the one your bookmaker uses, the cash-out can even be better. Run both through the formula.

Whether to lock in at all is a separate question. Hedging reduces swings, but on average it costs something, because you pay a margin every time. Hedging every accumulator means paying that margin twice.

You need the same hedge maths when the second leg of a sure bet is no longer available at the planned odds. The section on failed legs in what is a good arbitrage percentage works through that case.

Partial cash-out and partial hedges

Many bookmakers offer a partial cash-out: you sell, for example, half of your bet and let the rest run. Mathematically that is a full cash-out on the part you sell, with the same deduction.

A smaller hedge does the same. In the example above, a hedge of €117.65 (half) gives you €117.65 × 1.70 − €117.65 = +€82.35 if the last leg loses. If it wins, you get €400 − €117.65 = +€282.35. As with every hedge, you trade part of the possible upside for a fixed minimum.

A note on free bets and bonus money: bets placed with bonus funds are often excluded from cash-out, and cashing out can affect wagering requirements. Read the bonus terms and our guide to free bets.

Frequently asked questions

Is cash-out always a bad deal?

No. It almost always includes a deduction against the fair value, but it is convenient and sometimes the only option, for example if you have no second account or the other market is suspended. Compare the offer with a hedge first.

How much margin is in a cash-out?

Bookmakers do not publish it. You can estimate it by multiplying the potential return by the fair probability from the current odds and comparing that with the offer. In the example on this page the cash-out was about 7 percent below fair value.

When should I hedge a bet?

When a fixed result matters more to you than the full possible win, for example because the amount is large for your bankroll. Work out both the cash-out and the hedge first and choose the better locked-in result. Hedging always costs some margin on average.

How do I calculate the hedge stake?

Divide the potential return of the open bet by the odds on the other side. With a potential return of 400 euros and hedge odds of 1.70 that is 235.29 euros, and you are 164.71 euros up from now whichever way it goes.

Sources

• Unternehmensserviceportal (USP, Austria): Wettgebührenabrechnung
• RIS: Gebührengesetz 1957, § 33 TP 17 (betting fee)
• Wikipedia: Hedge (finance)
• Bookmakers' betting rules, "Cash out" section (availability, partial cash-out, exclusion of bonus bets)

As of October 2026. The examples are illustrations with the stated odds. Cash-out offers change constantly.

Not betting, legal or tax advice. 18+. Betting involves risk and no profit is guaranteed: odds change, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only bet money you can afford to lose. Our responsible gambling page lists free help, and the disclaimer applies.