Calculator guide · 6 min read

Is arbitrage software worth it? The break-even maths

A sure-bet tool costs a fixed amount every month, while the money it helps you make depends on how much you bet and at what margin. This guide gives you one simple formula to work out the turnover you need just to cover the subscription, a table for different margins, the costs people forget, and an honest list of situations in which the software is not worth it.

Updated 22 October 2026

Contents

The break-even formula
Break-even table
A worked month
Hidden costs
When it does not pay
Using the trial as a test
FAQ
Sources

The break-even formula

A sure bet earns a small percentage of the total amount you stake on it, called the margin. If the margin is 1.5% and you stake €300 in total across both bookmakers, the result is about €4.50, provided both bets are accepted at the shown odds and stand. To cover a monthly fee, you need enough total stake (turnover) at that margin:

break-even turnover = monthly fee ÷ average net margin

With €97 a month and a 1% average realised margin (our model's assumption; listed margins are mostly 0.5–2%): €97 ÷ 0.01 ≈ €9,700 of total stakes a month. Only the part above that is left for you. Turnover is not the same as capital: if your bets settle within a few days, the same €2,000 spread across your accounts can be staked several times in a month. How much capital makes sense is covered in starting bankroll for arbitrage betting.

Break-even table across margins

The table uses the €97 monthly price and a typical sure bet of €300 total stake. Use the margin you actually get after costs, not the best one you see in the scanner.

Average net margin	Turnover to cover €97	Result per €300 sure bet	Sure bets of €300 needed
1.0%	€9,700	€3.00	33
1.5%	€6,467	€4.50	22
2.0%	€4,850	€6.00	17
2.5%	€3,880	€7.50	13
3.0%	€3,233	€9.00	11

Sure bets needed are rounded up. Assumptions: every leg accepted at the shown odds and not voided, no betting fee passed on, no failed legs. Real results vary and can be negative.

Two things stand out. First, the margin matters a lot: at 1% you need three times the turnover you need at 3%. What margins are realistic, and which small ones are still worth placing, is explained in what is a good arbitrage percentage. Second, the number of bets is not huge, but each one takes a few minutes to check and place, and you need enough bookmaker accounts with money on them to place them.

A worked month, with costs

Example A: €2,000 capital, six accounts

30 sure bets of €300 in total stake: €9,000 turnover. Gross margin 1.5%: €135.

Minus failed legs and rounding, assumed at 0.2% of turnover: −€18. Minus two withdrawal fees of €2: −€4. Result before the software: about €113. After the €97 subscription: about €16, for roughly eight hours of work.

Example B: €5,000 capital, ten accounts

60 sure bets of €400: €24,000 turnover. Gross margin 1.5%: €360. Failed legs and rounding (0.2%): −€48. Fees: −€4. Before the software: about €308. After €97: about €211, for roughly fifteen hours of work.

In these examples only. They assume every placed leg stands at the shown odds apart from the stated failure allowance, and that no account gets limited during the month. Real results vary and can be negative: odds move, bets get voided and accounts get limited.

Example A shows the honest picture for a small start: in this example the result barely covers the fee, and the hourly result is low. Example B shows why capital, number of accounts and time decide everything. Neither is a forecast. How to measure your own results properly (ROI versus yield) is explained in betting ROI and yield.

Hidden costs that change the maths

Betting fees passed on to you. Austria charges a 5% betting fee (Wettgebühr) on stakes since April 2025. The bookmaker owes it, but some deduct it from your payout. On a €150 leg that is €7.50, more than the whole €4.50 result of a 1.5% sure bet of €300. Check every bookmaker, see Austria's betting tax.
Deposit and withdrawal fees. Some payment methods or bookmakers charge fees, and paying in a foreign currency can add conversion costs. See bookmaker deposit methods and bookmaker withdrawals.
Failed legs and mistakes. Odds move before the second bet, a leg gets voided, or you pick the wrong market. One mistake on a €300 sure bet can cost more than ten good ones earn.
Limits. Bookmakers limit accounts that win. Fewer usable accounts means less turnover, which pushes you back under break-even. Read bookmaker limits.
Your time. If eight hours earn €16 after the fee, that is €2 an hour. Be honest about whether that is worth it to you.

When arbitrage software is not worth it

Small capital. Below about €1,000 to €1,500 spread across accounts, it is hard to reach the break-even turnover at realistic margins.
Few accounts. With two or three bookmakers you see only a small share of the available sure bets.
Little time. Sure bets often last minutes. If you can only check once in the evening, many are gone.
Accounts already limited. If your main bookmakers already restrict your stakes, the turnover is not there.
Fee-deducting bookmakers. If most of your accounts pass the 5% Austrian betting fee on to you, normal sure bets turn negative.
Money you need. Only use money you can afford to lose. Betting is never a way out of debt.

In those cases a free tool or a manual approach may be the better choice. What free arbitrage finders can and cannot do is compared in free arbitrage finders.

Using the trial as a test

A trial is the cheapest way to replace guesses with your own numbers. ArbVantage offers 14 days free (card required, cancel any time before it ends). In those two weeks, track:

How many sure bets fit your bookmakers and your available time.
The net margin you actually achieved, after failed legs and fees.
Your total turnover, then multiply by about 2.1 (30 ÷ 14) for a month.
The hours you spent.

Put those values into the formula above. If the projected monthly turnover is clearly above the break-even figure for your margin, the subscription can make sense; if not, cancel before the trial ends. ArbVantage covers sure bets and middles today; value bets are coming soon, and native iOS and Android apps are in development.

FAQ

How much turnover do I need to cover a €97 subscription?

Divide the fee by your average net margin. At 1.5% that is about €6,467 of total stakes a month, at 2% about €4,850 and at 1% about €9,700. These figures assume every leg stands at the shown odds.

Is turnover the same as starting capital?

No. Turnover is the total amount you stake in a month. If bets settle quickly, the same capital can be staked several times, so €2,000 spread across accounts can support a higher monthly turnover.

When is arbitrage software not worth it?

Usually with small capital, only two or three bookmaker accounts, little free time, accounts that are already limited, or bookmakers that pass the Austrian 5% betting fee on to you.

Does the software pay for itself?

Not automatically. Whether it covers the fee depends on your margin, turnover, costs and limits. Use the 14-day trial to measure your own numbers before you pay anything.

Sources

As of October 2026. The calculations are illustrations under the stated assumptions. Not betting, financial, legal or tax advice. 18+.

Betting involves risk, sure bets included: odds move, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only stake money you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, our responsible gambling page lists free help in Austria and Germany.