Outright betting explained

What an outright bet is

Most bets are settled after one match. An outright (also called a futures or ante-post bet) is settled at the end of a whole competition. Typical outright markets are:

• Winner: who wins the league, the cup or the tournament.
• Top scorer: which player scores the most goals over the season.
• Relegation, top four, to reach the final: "place" style markets with several winners.
• Specials: head-to-head season bets, such as "Team A finishes above Team B".

You can usually place outright bets right up until the competition is decided, and the odds keep moving after every round of matches.

The margin, worked out

Every set of odds hides a margin: the amount by which the implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. In a main football market such as 1X2 the total is often around 104-106%. In outright markets it is usually far higher, because there are many runners and every price is rounded in the bookmaker's favour.

Real markets with 20 teams or 100 players often look like this or worse. The margin is not spread evenly either: research on the favourite-longshot bias shows that long shots tend to be priced even less generously than favourites, so the 50.00 outsider usually gives you a worse deal than the 2.50 favourite. You can find the general method in our guides on the bookmaker margin and implied probability.

Money tied up for months

An outright bet placed in August on a league that ends in May keeps your stake at the bookmaker for about nine months. That has three costs that beginners often overlook:

• Opportunity cost: money locked in one bet cannot be used for anything else. A pre-match sure bet is usually settled within days, so the same euro can be reused many times in a season.
• Account risk: during those months your account can be limited or closed, a bookmaker can change its terms or leave a market. Some international brands have also withdrawn from individual countries in recent years. Open bets are normally still settled, but getting paid can take longer.
• Inflation: €100 paid out next May buys a little less than €100 today.

How much capital you need for sure betting in general, and why turnover matters, is covered in starting bankroll for arbitrage betting.

Dead heats and ties

A dead heat means two or more selections finish level for a single winning place. It is common in top-scorer markets, where several players can end a season on the same number of goals. Many bookmakers then divide your stake by the number of tied winners and pay full odds on that part.

Not every bookmaker uses dead-heat rules for every competition. Some settle on the official award, which may use tie-breakers such as assists or minutes played. If you hold the same player at two bookmakers with different tie rules, the payouts can differ a lot. The same logic applies to place markets in horse racing, explained in our each-way betting guide.

Rules that change the result

Because outright bets run for so long, more things can happen that the betting rules must cover:

• Curtailed seasons: in spring 2020 several leagues stopped early. The French Ligue 1 awarded the title on the table at the time, while the Dutch Eredivisie was abandoned on 24 April 2020 with no champion. Bookmakers settled these differently: some paid on the final table, others voided bets.
• Points deductions and appeals: most bookmakers settle on the official final table, sometimes including deductions, sometimes "at the time of the last match". Later court decisions are usually ignored.
• Play-offs: in leagues with a championship round or play-offs, check whether "winner" means the regular season or the final champion.
• Non-runners: in some tournament markets, a player who withdraws loses your bet ("all-in, run or not"), while others refund it. Rules for abandoned single matches are covered in abandoned and postponed matches.

Why outright arbs are rare and illiquid

A sure bet needs every possible result covered at combined odds whose implied probabilities add up to less than 100%. In a two-way match market you need two bets. In a 20-team title market you would need up to 20 bets, at 20 sets of best prices, and the best price for each team would have to be good enough to wipe out a margin of 20% or more. That almost never happens.

Arbs that do appear in outright markets usually use a two-way version of the question, for example "Will Team A win the league? Yes / No", or a head-to-head season special.

Even then, the practical problems are bigger than in match markets:

• Low limits: bookmakers often cap outright stakes well below match markets, so the second leg may be refused or cut.
• Slow, wide markets: prices can sit unchanged for days and then jump after one result, so an "arb" may just be a stale price that is pulled the moment you bet.
• Rule mismatches: a curtailed season, a play-off or a dead heat can settle the two legs differently, which turns a small fixed gain into a loss.
• Long lock-up: as shown above, a small percentage is tied up for months.

For these reasons ArbVantage focuses on match markets that are settled quickly. If you want to know what percentage makes a sure bet worth the effort, read what is a good arbitrage percentage.

Frequently asked questions

What is an outright bet?

An outright bet is a bet on the result of a whole competition rather than one match, for example the league winner, the tournament winner or the top scorer. It is settled when the competition ends, which can be many months after you place it.

Why are outright odds so poor?

Outright markets have many selections and the bookmaker rounds each price in its favour, so the implied probabilities often add up to 120-130% or more. Long shots tend to be priced even less generously than favourites. Comparing several bookmakers helps, but the margin rarely disappears.

What happens to a top scorer bet if two players tie?

Many bookmakers apply dead-heat rules: your stake is divided by the number of tied players and full odds are paid on that part. Some settle on the official award instead, which may use tie-breakers. Check the rules of your bookmaker before you bet.

Are there sure bets on outright markets?

Rarely. Covering every team at good enough odds is almost never possible. Small arbs sometimes appear in two-way versions such as Yes or No title bets, but they come with low limits, rule differences and money tied up for months.

Sources

• Wikipedia: Mathematics of bookmaking (overround)
• Snowberg, E. and Wolfers, J. (2010): Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions? NBER Working Paper 15923
• Štrumbelj, E. (2014): On determining probability forecasts from betting odds. International Journal of Forecasting 30(4)
• Wikipedia: Dead heat (settlement of ties)
• Wikipedia: 2019-20 Eredivisie (season abandoned, no champion)
• Wikipedia: 2019-20 Ligue 1 (title awarded on the table)

As of October 2026. Settlement rules differ between bookmakers and can change; your bookmaker's betting rules are what counts. All figures are worked examples with the stated odds.

Not betting, legal or tax advice. 18+. Betting involves risk and no profit is guaranteed: odds change, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only bet money you can afford to lose. Our responsible gambling page lists free help, and the disclaimer applies.