Comparison · 7 min read
Betting vs investing: sports bets, sure bets and ETFs honestly compared
If you are interested in money, you will come across both sooner or later: shares and ETFs on one side, sports betting and sure bets on the other. Both are marketed as ways to make your money work, but they work in completely different ways. This comparison uses seven criteria to show the differences, and why sure bets are a small, labour-based side income rather than an investment.
Updated 22 October 2026
Contents
This page is general information. It is not financial, investment, betting or tax advice and not a personal recommendation, and it does not take your situation into account. Past returns are not a reliable indicator of future returns. If you are unsure, ask an independent adviser.
- Ordinary sports bets have a negative expected value: on average you lose the bookmaker's margin.
- Broadly diversified share ETFs have delivered positive returns over the long run, but they fluctuate strongly and need many years.
- Sure bets earn small margins per bet, are capped by limits and cost working time. They are a side income, not an investment.
Before you compare: an emergency fund first
Whether shares or bets: money you may need in the next few months belongs neither on the stock market nor on a betting account. A common rule of thumb is three to six months of expenses as a reserve in a savings account. In the EU, bank deposits are protected up to €100,000 per person and bank by deposit guarantee schemes. Balances on a betting account are not.
And betting is never a way out of debt. If you need money to pay bills, neither option is the right answer.
The comparison in one table
| Criterion | Share ETF (broad) | Ordinary sports bets | Sure bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected return | Positive over the long run, not guaranteed | Negative, about minus the bookmaker margin | Small margin per bet, mostly 0.5–2% (many below 1%), if everything stands |
| Volatility | High: falls of 40% have happened | Very high: each bet can be lost entirely | Low per bet, but single errors or voids can be costly |
| Liquidity | Can be sold on any trading day | Withdrawals take days, depending on the bookmaker | Money spread across several accounts and open bets |
| Scalability | Practically unlimited | Stake limits per bet | Strongly capped: limits on winning accounts |
| Regulation and protection | Financial supervision, fund assets held separately | Gambling or betting law, no deposit protection | Same as ordinary sports bets |
| Taxes (Austria) | 27.5% capital gains tax (KESt) on income | Private winnings generally tax-free; 5% betting fee on stakes owed by the bookmaker | Same as ordinary sports bets |
| Time needed | A few hours a year | Any | Several hours a week |
As of October 2026. Simplified; details in the sections below and in the sources.
Expected return: who earns on average?
Ordinary sports bets
Bookmakers build a margin into their odds. A simple example: a match with two equally likely outcomes is offered at 1.90 on both sides. Fair odds would be 2.00. If you stake €100, your expected value is 0.5 × €190 − €100 = −€5. In the long run you lose about 5% of your stakes. That is not bad luck, it is the business model. More in expected value in betting.
Shares and ETFs
Shares are stakes in companies, and their return comes from company profits and growth. According to the long-run study by Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025), world equities returned about 5.2% a year after inflation from 1900 to 2024, and bonds about 1.7%. That is an average over 125 years, with wars, crises and decades without gains in between.
Worked example: €5,000 growing at 5% a year for 20 years gives €5,000 × 1.0520 ≈ €13,266 (in today's money, before taxes and costs). That is an assumption, not a forecast: it can be much less, or more.
Sure bets
With a sure bet you split your stake across all outcomes so that you get back roughly the same amount whatever happens, mostly 0.5–2% more than you staked, often less than 1%. This only works if every bet is accepted at the shown odds and stands. The return does not grow with time like an investment, but with the number of bets you place. When you stop working, the return stops. How much time that takes is shown in arbitrage betting as a side income.
Volatility and risk
Share prices fluctuate strongly. In 2008 the major world equity indices fell by around 40%, and it took years to recover. Anyone who has to sell in such a phase realises losses, which is why money in shares should be able to stay invested for many years.
Ordinary sports bets fluctuate even more. Any single bet can be lost completely, and short winning streaks mean nothing. See variance in betting.
Sure bets fluctuate little as long as everything works. The risk lies in single events: odds change before the second bet is placed, one leg is voided, an account is closed. A single failed bet can then cost the margin of many weeks. The full list is in arbitrage betting risks.
Liquidity and scalability
You can sell an ETF on any trading day, whether you have €500 or €500,000 invested. Sure bets are different: your money is spread across several betting accounts, part of it sits in open bets, and withdrawals take a few days depending on the bookmaker.
Above all, the return does not grow freely with capital. Bookmakers limit accounts that win regularly, and there is only a limited number of suitable sure bets. From a certain point, more capital brings no extra return. What that looks like in numbers is shown in compounding in arbitrage betting.
Regulation, protection and taxes
ETFs sold to retail investors in the EU are usually UCITS funds, under financial market supervision, and the fund's assets are held separately from the fund company's own assets. In Austria, investment income is usually taxed at 27.5% capital gains tax (§ 27a of the Income Tax Act).
Sports bets are not financial instruments. They are governed by betting law in the Austrian federal states or by the bookmaker's licence, often from Malta. Winnings from private betting are generally free of income tax in Austria; since 1 April 2025 a 5% betting fee on stakes applies, owed by the bookmaker. In Slovakia, winnings from bookmakers licensed by the regulator ÚRHH are exempt from income tax; see Slovakia's betting tax. Whether sure bets count as gambling is answered in is arbitrage betting gambling?, and the tax questions in tax and legality.
Time: investment or work?
The most important difference is work. A broadly diversified ETF savings plan needs a few hours a year once it is set up. Sure bets need regular time: checking opportunities, placing bets, managing accounts, recording results. Software like ArbVantage takes over the searching and the maths, but not the placing and checking.
That is why "either or" is usually the wrong question. Sure bets are closer to a small side job than to an investment. If you try them, do it with money you can afford to lose, after your emergency fund, and never with money meant for your long-term savings.
FAQ
Are sure bets an investment?
No. Sure bets are a series of individual bets with a small margin each. The return comes from your work, is capped by bookmaker limits and stops when you stop. They are better described as a side income than as an investment.
Are sports bets or ETFs better for my money?
That depends on your situation, and this page is not advice. Ordinary sports bets have a negative expected value. Broad ETFs have delivered positive real returns over the long run, but fluctuate strongly and are not guaranteed.
Is money on a betting account protected?
Not like a bank deposit. EU deposit guarantee schemes cover bank deposits up to 100,000 euros per person and bank, but not balances at bookmakers. Only keep the amount you need for betting on a betting account.
Do I pay tax on betting winnings in Austria?
Private betting winnings are generally free of income tax in Austria. The bookmaker owes a 5% betting fee on stakes, and some pass it on to customers. Investment income from shares and ETFs is usually taxed at 27.5%. This is not tax advice.
Sources
- Cambridge Judge Business School: Report: stocks have far outperformed over the past 125 years (UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025, Dimson, Marsh, Staunton)
- RIS: Austrian Income Tax Act 1988, § 27a (special rate of 27.5%)
- EUR-Lex: Directive 2014/49/EU on deposit guarantee schemes (€100,000 per depositor and bank)
- EUR-Lex: Directive 2009/65/EC (UCITS)
- RIS: Austrian Fees Act 1957, § 33 TP 17 (betting fee)
- Levitt, S. D. (2004): Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets? The Economic Journal 114(495), 223–246
As of October 2026. The calculations are illustrations under the stated assumptions. Not betting, financial, legal or tax advice. 18+.
Betting involves risk, sure bets included: odds move, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only stake money you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, our responsible gambling page lists free help in Austria and Germany.