Guide · 7 min read
Correct score betting explained
A correct score bet asks you to name the exact final score. The odds look attractive, often 7.00 or more for the most likely result, but this is also one of the markets where the bookmaker keeps the most. Here is how correct score prices are built, what dutching several scores really does and when a sure bet is possible.
Updated 22 October 2026
Contents
How correct score works
You pick a final score, for example 2-1 to the home team. If the match ends 2-1 after regular time, you win; any other score loses. Bookmakers list the common scores individually (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 and so on, usually up to 3 or 4 goals per team) and group the rest under "any other score", sometimes split into "any other home win", "any other draw" and "any other away win".
As with most football markets, correct score is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the market says otherwise.
Pricing scores with Poisson
A classic way to estimate score probabilities is the Poisson model. You estimate how many goals each team is expected to score (λ), then work out the chance of exactly 0, 1, 2 or more goals for each side. Multiplying the two gives the chance of each score, if you treat the teams as independent.
Home: 0 goals 22.3%, 1 goal 33.5%, 2 goals 25.1%. Away: 0 goals 36.8%, 1 goal 36.8%.
1-0 = 0.335 × 0.368 = 12.3% (fair odds about 8.12). 1-1 = 12.3% (8.12). 2-0 and 2-1 = 0.251 × 0.368 = 9.2% each (10.83). 0-0 and 0-1 = 0.223 × 0.368 = 8.2% each (12.18).
Research going back to Maher (1982) and Dixon and Coles (1997) shows that this simple model works reasonably well but underestimates low-scoring draws such as 0-0 and 1-1. Professional pricing adds corrections for that, for team form and for match situation. For a beginner, the model is useful mainly to show how thin each individual score probability is.
How big the margin is
Now compare the model with typical bookmaker odds for the same match: 1-0 at 7.00, 1-1 at 6.50, 2-1 at 9.00, 2-0 at 9.50, 0-0 at 10.00 and 0-1 at 10.00.
Implied probabilities of the offered odds: 14.3% + 15.4% + 11.1% + 10.5% + 10.0% + 10.0% = 71.3%.
The model's probabilities for the same six scores: 12.3% + 12.3% + 9.2% + 9.2% + 8.2% + 8.2% = 59.5%.
The bookmaker's prices imply about 20% more probability than the model gives these six scores (71.3 / 59.5 = 1.20). If the model is roughly right, that is the size of the price you are paying.
Across a whole correct score market, implied probabilities commonly add up to well over 100%; double-digit margins are normal, compared with roughly 4-6% on a main 1X2 market. The method for checking any market is in bookmaker margin and overround.
Why bookmakers like this market
- Many outcomes: with 25 or more selections, small roundings on each one add up to a large total margin.
- Big odds attract bettors: a 9.00 price feels exciting, and studies of the favourite-longshot bias find that bettors tend to overpay for long odds.
- Hard to check: few bettors build their own model, so mispriced scores are noticed less often than in 1X2.
- Popular in bet builders and accumulators: combining a score with other selections multiplies the margins.
Dutching several scores
Dutching means backing several selections so that you get the same return whichever of them wins. It is often used on correct score, for example "home wins by one or two goals with no more than one away goal".
Odds 7.00, 9.50 and 9.00. Implied probabilities 0.1429 + 0.1053 + 0.1111 = 0.3592, so the combined odds are 1 / 0.3592 = 2.78.
Stakes: €19.88 on 1-0, €14.65 on 2-0 and €15.47 on 2-1. If any of the three scores comes in, you get back about €139.20 (19.88 × 7.00 = 139.16; 14.65 × 9.50 = 139.18; 15.47 × 9.00 = 139.23; the small differences are rounding).
The model above gives these three scores 12.3% + 9.2% + 9.2% = 30.8%, fair combined odds of about 3.25. Expected value: 0.308 × €139.20 − €50 = about −€7.15, or −14%.
Dutching does not remove the margin, it only spreads your stake. It is a good tool when each price is better than fair, or when you dutch the best prices from several bookmakers. Our dutching calculator guide explains the stake formula, and expected value explains why −14% matters more than how often you win.
Sure bets with correct score
Covering every score at several bookmakers is almost never profitable because of the high margin. Correct score is more useful as one leg of a combination with an equivalent market. The cleanest case is 0-0 against over 0.5 goals: if the match ends 0-0 the first bet wins, and any goal at all wins the second.
1/12.00 + 1/1.10 = 0.0833 + 0.9091 = 0.9924, about 0.8% below 100%.
With €100: €8.40 on 0-0 and €91.60 on over 0.5. 0-0: 8.40 × 12.00 = €100.80. Any goal: 91.60 × 1.10 = €100.76. About +€0.80, before any rounding the bookmaker forces.
The margin is tiny and both bets must be settled on the same period. Watch out for markets where an abandoned 0-0 is voided at one bookmaker but settled at the other. How to judge whether a percentage this small is worth the effort is covered in what is a good arbitrage percentage.
Frequently asked questions
Why are correct score odds so high?
Each exact score is unlikely on its own, even the most common ones happen in only about 10-13% of matches. The odds look high, but the bookmaker margin on correct score is usually much larger than on 1X2, so the prices are lower than the true chances would justify.
What does any other score mean?
It covers every score that is not listed individually, usually results with four or more goals for one team. Some bookmakers split it into any other home win, any other draw and any other away win. Check how your bookmaker defines it before betting.
Does dutching correct scores make a profit?
Not by itself. Dutching only spreads your stake so that each chosen score returns the same amount. The bookmaker margin stays in the price, so the expected result is usually negative unless each price is better than fair.
Does extra time count in correct score bets?
Normally not. Correct score in football is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Some cup markets cover the score after extra time, which is a different market, so read the market name and the betting rules.
Sources
- Maher, M. J. (1982): Modelling association football scores. Statistica Neerlandica 36(3)
- Dixon, M. J. and Coles, S. G. (1997): Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society C 46(2)
- Kuypers, T. (2000): Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market. Applied Economics 32(11)
- Snowberg, E. and Wolfers, J. (2010): Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias. NBER Working Paper 15923
- Wikipedia: Poisson distribution
As of October 2026. Model figures are illustrations based on a simple Poisson model, not forecasts. Settlement rules differ between bookmakers; your bookmaker's betting rules are what counts.
Not betting, legal or tax advice. 18+. Betting involves risk and no profit is guaranteed: odds change, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only bet money you can afford to lose. Our responsible gambling page lists free help, and the disclaimer applies.