Guide · 7 min read

Goalscorer betting explained

Goalscorer bets are about one player: will he score, will he score first, will he score twice? They are popular because they are easy to follow during a match. They are also full of rules that differ from one bookmaker to the next, especially when a player does not start. This guide explains the markets, the margin and why player-prop arbs need careful rule matching.

Updated 22 October 2026

Contents

Anytime, first and last scorer
Non-starters and void rules
Own goals and disputed goals
The margin in scorer markets
Why player-prop arbs need rule matching
Frequently asked questions
Sources

Anytime, first and last scorer

Anytime scorer: the player scores at least once in the match.
First goalscorer: the player scores the first goal of the match. The list usually includes a "no goalscorer" option for 0-0.
Last goalscorer: the player scores the last goal of the match.
To score 2 or more / hat-trick: the player scores at least two or three times.
Player not to score: offered by some bookmakers, the opposite of anytime.

Like most football markets, scorer bets cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Goals in extra time and in penalty shoot-outs do not count. A penalty scored during normal time counts like any other goal.

Non-starters and void rules

The most important rule is what happens when your player does not play the whole match. Typical rules include:

Player takes no part: bets are usually void and the stake is returned.
Player comes on as a substitute: for anytime and last scorer, bets normally stand.
First goalscorer, player comes on after the first goal: some bookmakers void the bet, others count it as a loser.
"Must start" rules: some bookmakers void certain player markets if the player is not in the starting line-up, even if he comes on later.

So "the same bet" at two bookmakers can end with one bet void and the other lost. For a single bet that is annoying. For a sure bet it can be expensive, as shown below. When and why bets are voided in general is explained in voided bets and palpable errors.

Own goals and disputed goals

Under the Laws of the Game, an own goal counts as a goal for the other team. In scorer markets it does not count for any player. For first goalscorer bets, bookmakers handle it differently:

Many say own goals do not count, so the next regular goal decides the first goalscorer.
Some list "own goal" as a separate selection, or settle "no goalscorer" if only own goals are scored.

Disputed goals (a deflected shot, a goalmouth scramble) are settled on the scorer named by the bookmaker's official data source, usually at the end of the match. Later changes by a league's goals panel are often ignored. If two bookmakers use different sources, they can settle the same goal for different players.

The margin in scorer markets

A simple way to price a scorer bet is to start from a player's expected goals in the match and use the Poisson formula: the chance of scoring at least once is 1 − e^−λ.

Worked example: anytime scorer

A striker is expected to score 0.45 goals if he plays the full match. Chance of at least one goal: 1 − e^−0.45 = 1 − 0.638 = 36.2%, fair odds about 2.76.

A bookmaker offers 2.30, which implies 43.5%. The price implies about 20% more probability than the model (43.5 / 36.2 = 1.20).

Worked example: first goalscorer

The match is expected to have 2.6 goals in total. Chance of at least one goal: 1 − e^−2.6 = 92.6%. The striker's share of the expected goals is 0.45 / 2.6 = 17.3%, so his chance of scoring first is about 0.926 × 0.173 = 16.0%, fair odds about 6.24.

A typical offer of 5.00 implies 20%, about 25% more than the model.

These are simplified models; they ignore substitutions and the fact that some players take penalties. But they show the pattern: with 20 or more players listed, scorer markets carry much higher margins than the match result. The general method is in bookmaker margin and overround and implied probability.

Why player-prop arbs need rule matching

Scorer markets do produce arbs, for example "player to score" at one bookmaker against "player not to score" at another. The maths is the same as any two-way sure bet. The risk is in the rules.

Worked example: anytime yes at 2.60, not to score at 1.70

1/2.60 + 1/1.70 = 0.3846 + 0.5882 = 0.9729, about 2.7% below 100%. With €100: €39.53 on "to score" at bookmaker A and €60.47 on "not to score" at bookmaker B. Normal match: about €102.80 back either way.

Now the player starts on the bench, comes on after 70 minutes and does not score. Bookmaker A's bet stands because he took part: the €39.53 is lost. Bookmaker B has a "must start" rule and voids its bet: the €60.47 comes back. Result: −€39.53.

If instead he comes on and scores, A pays €102.78 and B refunds €60.47: +€63.25. The "arb" has turned into an uneven gamble on the line-up.

To keep a scorer arb a real sure bet, check at both bookmakers:

The void rule for players who do not take part, and whether a "must start" rule applies.
How substitutes are treated, especially for first goalscorer.
How own goals are handled.
Which data source decides disputed goals.
Maximum stakes: player markets usually have low limits.

Waiting for the official line-ups (about an hour before kick-off) removes the biggest uncertainty, though odds move quickly then. Our bookmaker terms to check guide lists where to find these rules.

Frequently asked questions

What happens to an anytime scorer bet if the player does not play?

At most bookmakers the bet is void and the stake is returned if the player takes no part in the match. If he comes on as a substitute, the bet normally stands. Some bookmakers have stricter rules for certain player markets, so check the rules.

Do own goals count in goalscorer bets?

No player is credited with an own goal in scorer markets. For first goalscorer bets, many bookmakers ignore own goals and settle on the next regular goal, while others treat own goal as its own selection.

Do penalties count for goalscorer bets?

Penalties scored during the match count like any other goal. Penalties in a shoot-out after extra time do not count, because scorer markets are normally settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

Are goalscorer arbs safe?

No. Sure bets always carry risks such as odds changes and limits, and scorer markets add rule differences: void rules for non-starters, substitutes and own goals can settle the two bets differently. Matching the rules at both bookmakers is essential.

Sources

As of October 2026. Void and settlement rules differ between bookmakers and can change; your bookmaker's betting rules are what counts. Model figures are simplified illustrations, not forecasts.

Not betting, legal or tax advice. 18+. Betting involves risk and no profit is guaranteed: odds change, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only bet money you can afford to lose. Our responsible gambling page lists free help, and the disclaimer applies.