Guide · 5 min read
Can you bet for a living? What professional sports bettors really do
Professional sports bettors exist, but they look very different from the image on social media. They work with statistical models, large volumes and bookmakers that accept winners, and they live with long losing streaks. This guide explains what they actually do, why there are so few of them, and why arbitrage betting is better seen as a modest side activity than as a career.
Updated 22 October 2026
Contents
Who the professionals are
- Syndicates and modelling teams. Groups with statistical models, paid data feeds and staff. They estimate a fair price for thousands of matches and bet large volumes wherever the market price is better than their own.
- Individual modellers. One person with a model for one or two leagues or sports. In principle this is value betting: backing outcomes whose odds are higher than the estimated probability justifies.
- Exchange traders and market makers. On betting exchanges they offer prices to other customers and earn the spread between back and lay prices, paying commission to the exchange.
- Customers of sharp bookmakers. Some bookmakers run low margins and accept winners, using their bets as information. Professionals bet there because the soft, recreational bookmakers would limit them. See sharp vs soft bookmakers.
What none of them do: follow paid tips, chase accumulators or use staking systems such as the martingale.
Why they are rare
To win long-term you have to be better than the market by more than the margin. Bookmaker prices are already good forecasts of results (Forrest, Goddard and Simmons 2005), and the closing price just before kick-off is hard to beat consistently. You are competing with teams that have better data, faster systems and more capital than you. That is why most bettors lose over time, as explained in can you win at sports betting long-term?
Why soft-bookmaker accounts get limited quickly
Recreational bookmakers earn their money from customers who lose on average. They profile accounts, and accounts that win consistently or only bet when prices are generous get lower maximum stakes, sometimes within weeks. Levitt (2004) described this as the bookmaker's business model; Kaunitz, Zhong and Kreiner (2017) were limited at several bookmakers within months while betting with a published model.
So professionals rely on sharp bookmakers and exchanges. Those have lower margins and accept larger stakes, but their prices are harder to beat, which needs an even better edge. Details in bookmaker limits.
Capital and variance in numbers
A bettor with a real 3% edge places 1,000 bets of €100 at odds of 2.00. Total stakes: €100,000. Expected profit: 3% of that, €3,000.
Each bet wins or loses about €100, so the standard deviation over 1,000 bets is about €100 × √1,000 ≈ €3,160. Roughly 95% of outcomes fall between about −€3,300 and +€9,300. The chance of being behind after all 1,000 bets, despite the edge, is about one in six.
Two lessons follow. First, a real edge can look like failure for months, so a professional needs a bankroll many times the stake per bet and a staking method such as a fraction of the Kelly criterion (see Kelly criterion). Second, €3,000 of expected profit on €100,000 of stakes is not a living. A full income needs far more turnover, and turnover is exactly what limits take away. More in betting variance.
Taxes when betting becomes a business
In Austria, winnings from private sports betting are generally not subject to income tax. Betting run on a large scale, systematically and over a long time can be judged differently, and then the question is whether it counts as business income. In Slovakia, winnings from ÚRHH-licensed operators are generally exempt from income tax; winnings from unlicensed operators, and betting run as a business, may be treated differently.
If you are thinking about betting at that scale, speak to a tax adviser (Steuerberater in Austria, daňový poradca in Slovakia) before you start, not after. See tax and legality, Austria betting tax and Slovakia betting tax. This is not tax advice.
The mental load
- Income swings from month to month, with no employer, no sick pay and no pension contributions unless you pay them yourself.
- Long losing streaks happen even with a real edge, and they feel personal.
- Many hours at screens, at odd times, chasing prices that move.
- The line between work and problem gambling can blur: staking more to win back losses, or hiding results, are warning signs.
18+ only. Betting is never a way out of money problems. If betting takes up more of your thoughts, time or money than you planned, take a break and talk to someone. Our responsible gambling page lists free, confidential help in Austria, Slovakia and elsewhere.
Where arbitrage fits: a side activity, not a career
Sure bets cover every outcome, so the swings per bet are small, if every leg stands. But they are also one of the quickest ways to get limited at soft bookmakers, which caps how far they scale. For most people that makes arbitrage a modest side activity that runs for a while, not a profession.
ArbVantage is built for exactly that: software that finds price differences between bookmakers and works out your stakes, for beginners in Austria and Slovakia. We do the maths; you decide every bet. To see the honest numbers, read arbitrage betting as a side income.
Frequently asked questions
Can you make a living from sports betting?
A small number of people do, mostly with statistical models, large volumes and access to bookmakers and exchanges that accept winners. For almost everyone else, margins, limits and variance make it unrealistic as a main income.
How much money do professional bettors need?
Enough to survive long losing streaks. In our example, a bettor with a real 3% edge still has about a one-in-six chance of being behind after 1,000 bets of €100, so the bankroll has to be many times the stake per bet.
Do professional bettors pay tax in Austria or Slovakia?
Private betting winnings are generally not taxed as income in Austria, and winnings from licensed operators are generally exempt in Slovakia. Betting run as a business can be judged differently, so ask a tax adviser.
Is arbitrage betting a way to become a professional bettor?
Not really. Sure bets swing little per bet, but bookmakers limit the accounts that use them, which sets a ceiling. Treat arbitrage as a modest side activity.
Sources
- Levitt, S. D. (2004): Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets? The Economic Journal 114(495), 223–246
- Kaunitz, L., Zhong, S., Kreiner, J. (2017): Beating the bookies with their own numbers, and how the online sports betting market is rigged, arXiv:1710.02824
- Forrest, D., Goddard, J., Simmons, R. (2005): Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football. International Journal of Forecasting 21(3), 551–564
- Edward O. Thorp: The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting, and the Stock Market
- RIS: Einkommensteuergesetz 1988 (§ 2 types of income, § 41 assessment of employees) (in German)
- ÚRHH: licensed gambling and betting websites in Slovakia (in Slovak)
- Spielsuchthilfe (Austria): counselling for gambling problems (in German)
As of October 2026, checked against the linked sources. Not legal, tax or betting advice.
Betting involves risk, even with sure bets: prices move, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only use money you can do without. Our responsible gambling page lists free help.
Not betting advice. 18+. Betting involves risk. See our disclaimer.