Myth check · 8 min read
“Safe bets today”: why there is no sure thing in betting
Every day thousands of people search for “safe bets today” or “sure tips”. The idea is appealing: find a favourite so strong it can't lose, and collect. The numbers tell a different story. Low odds mean a small win, not a small risk, and stacking several of them makes things worse, not better.
Updated 22 October 2026
Contents
What odds of 1.10 really say
Decimal odds convert straight into a probability: divide 1 by the odds. Odds of 1.10 imply 1 ÷ 1.10 = 90.9%. That is the bookmaker's view including its margin, so the real chance is lower still. Our guide to implied probability explains the conversion in detail.
Take a football match priced like this:
| Outcome | Odds | Implied probability | After removing the margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win (favourite) | 1.10 | 90.9% | about 85.1% |
| Draw | 9.00 | 11.1% | about 10.4% |
| Away win | 21.00 | 4.8% | about 4.5% |
| Total | 106.8% | 100% |
The probabilities add up to 106.8% instead of 100%. The extra 6.8% is the bookmaker margin. Spread evenly, it leaves the favourite with a fair chance of about 85%. In other words, the “banker” fails roughly once in every seven matches like this. Bookmakers don't always spread the margin evenly, so the exact figure varies, but it is never 100%.
Win small, lose big
At 1.10 a €100 stake wins €10. A single loss costs €100, which is ten wins. With an 85% chance:
expected value per €1 = 0.851 × 1.10 − 1 ≈ −6.4%
20 bets of €100: about 17 wins (+€170) and 3 losses (−€300) ≈ −€130
The long run of small wins feels like proof that the method works. It isn't: it is exactly what an 85% outcome looks like until the losses arrive. Expected value is the number that matters, and here it is negative.
Favourites do lose
Some upsets became famous precisely because the favourite looked unbeatable:
- Tyson vs Douglas, 1990: the undefeated heavyweight champion Mike Tyson was knocked out by Buster Douglas, a 42-1 outsider.
- Germany at the 2018 World Cup: the defending champions lost to Mexico and South Korea and went out in the group stage, the first time since 1938 they did not get past the first round.
- Leicester City, 2015–16: priced at 5000-1 by bookmakers before the season, they won the Premier League. That was a season bet, not a match, but it shows prices are estimates, not knowledge.
You don't need a famous upset for a “safe” pick to lose. Ordinary ones happen every weekend: an early red card, a goalkeeper error, a rotated squad. At an 85% chance, losing a few times in twenty bets is not bad luck. It is the expected result.
Stacking “safe” picks in an accumulator
A popular response to low odds is to combine several favourites in one accumulator (acca, or parlay) to get a more interesting price. The odds multiply, but so do the probabilities, and so does the margin. Suppose every pick is priced at 1.20 and really wins 80% of the time (each leg alone has an EV of −4%):
| Picks in the acca | Combined odds | Chance all win | EV per €1 staked |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.20 | 80.0% | −4.0% |
| 3 | 1.73 | 51.2% | −11.5% |
| 5 | 2.49 | 32.8% | −18.5% |
| 8 | 4.30 | 16.8% | −27.9% |
| 10 | 6.19 | 10.7% | −33.5% |
Five “safe” picks lose together about two times in three. And the expected loss compounds: 0.96 × 0.96 × 0.96 × 0.96 × 0.96 ≈ 0.815, so you keep about 81.5 cents of every euro on average. Ten picks keep about 66 cents. That is why bookmakers love accumulators and why so many “nearly won” slips get shared online.
Are favourites at least good value?
Research on betting markets has long found the favourite–longshot bias: on average, outsiders are overpriced by bettors more than favourites are, so betting on long shots loses more per euro than betting on favourites. Snowberg and Wolfers (2010) document it in horse racing. That makes favourites the less bad option on average. It doesn't make them a positive bet: after the margin, the typical favourite still has a negative expected value.
The only structure that covers every outcome
There is one situation where every outcome of an event is covered, and it isn't a single pick. It is a sure bet (arbitrage). Different bookmakers sometimes price the same event so differently that backing every outcome, each at a different bookmaker, returns slightly more than the total stake:
Player A at 2.06 (bookmaker 1), Player B at 2.02 (bookmaker 2)
1 ÷ 2.06 + 1 ÷ 2.02 ≈ 0.9805, below 1, so the prices leave a gap
€99.02 on A + €100.98 on B = €200 staked, about €203.98 back either way
That is about 2% on the total stake, whoever wins. The word “sure” refers to this maths, not to a promise. The margin comes from the price difference between bookmakers, not from predicting the winner.
What can still go wrong with a sure bet
Even a fully covered sure bet has practical risks, and it is fair to name them:
- The odds change before you place the second leg, and the gap closes. See when one leg fails.
- A bet is voided, for example as an obvious price error, leaving the other leg open. See voided bets.
- Settlement rules differ, for instance on tennis retirements or overtime, so the legs don't match.
- Accounts get limited by bookmakers that dislike arbitrage. See bookmaker limits.
- Mistakes: a wrong stake, a wrong market or a typo.
Our full guide to arbitrage betting risks covers each one and how to reduce it. The honest summary: sure bets remove the question of who wins, but not the practical risks of betting. If you are looking for “safe bets” because you need the money back quickly, please read our responsible gambling page first.
Frequently asked questions
Are there any safe bets today?
No. Even a heavy favourite at odds of 1.10 loses about once in seven matches once the bookmaker margin is taken into account, and each loss wipes out about ten wins. Any tip sold as safe or guaranteed should be treated as a warning sign.
What is the implied probability of odds of 1.10?
1 divided by 1.10 is about 90.9 percent. That figure includes the bookmaker margin, so the real chance is lower. In a typical three-way football market priced 1.10, 9.00 and 21.00, the favourite's fair chance is about 85 percent.
Is an accumulator of favourites a good idea?
Usually not. Probabilities multiply, and so does the bookmaker margin. Five picks at 1.20 that each win 80 percent of the time all win only about 33 percent of the time, and the expected loss grows from about 4 percent to about 18.5 percent per euro staked.
Is a sure bet really risk-free?
No. A sure bet covers every outcome across bookmakers, so who wins doesn't matter, but odds can change before the second leg is placed, bets can be voided, settlement rules can differ and accounts can be limited.
Sources
- Wikipedia: Mike Tyson vs. Buster Douglas
- Wikipedia: South Korea v Germany (2018 FIFA World Cup)
- Wikipedia: 2015–16 Leicester City F.C. season
- Snowberg, E. and Wolfers, J. (2010): Explaining the Favorite–Long Shot Bias. Journal of Political Economy 118(4)
- Wikipedia: Parlay (accumulator)
- Wikipedia: Arbitrage betting
As of October 2026. Odds in the examples are illustrative; probabilities and expected values calculated by us, rounded.
Betting involves risk, including sure bets: prices move, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only bet money you can do without. Our responsible gambling page lists free, confidential help.
Not betting, financial, legal or tax advice. 18+. As of October 2026.