The best time to find arbitrage bets, and the catch with each window

In short

• Sure bets appear when one bookmaker reacts more slowly than the others. The more is moving, the more likely they are.
• Typical windows: new markets opening, line-ups and news, morning price updates, weekend football and night-time events.
• Each window has a catch: low maximum stakes, more voided bets, or simply being tired at 3 a.m.

Why timing matters at all

A sure bet is a temporary disagreement between bookmakers. It arises when the view of a match changes and not every bookmaker follows at the same moment. Research on betting markets shows that new information flows into prices very quickly (Croxson and Reade, 2014), and that price differences between markets exist but are small and short-lived (Franck, Verbeek and Nüesch, 2013). It follows that most opportunities appear where something is moving right now. What drives price moves is explained in dropping odds.

1. When new markets open

Bookmakers put their prices for a match online at different times, often days ahead. Opening prices are estimates; some bookmakers copy a market leader, others make their own. In the hours after opening, prices converge, and differences appear along the way.

The catch: many bookmakers set low maximum stakes just after opening and raise them only as the market matures. You are more likely to find an opportunity but often can only stake a little. Bookmakers also correct early prices quickly.

2. Line-ups, injuries and news

In football, line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off in many leagues. If a regular starter or the first-choice goalkeeper is missing, prices move. Injury news, rotation before a European match, weather or a late withdrawal in tennis work the same way. Bookmakers react at different speeds, and for a few minutes their prices don't fit together.

The catch: these windows are short, and prices keep moving while you type. This is exactly when the first bet stands and the second price has already dropped. What to do then is in what to do when one leg fails.

3. The morning: prices get revised

Many bookmakers revise the day's prices in the morning, when traders work in overnight results, fresh news and moves at other bookmakers. Because that doesn't happen everywhere at once, differences appear. For bettors in Austria and Slovakia, this window falls in normal waking hours rather than in the night.

The catch: this is an observation from practice, not a fixed rule. When a bookmaker revises its prices isn't visible from outside and can change at any time.

4. Weekend football

Saturdays and Sundays carry most of Europe's football, plus second divisions, women's leagues and youth competitions. More matches and more markets mean more chances for price differences, in absolute terms.

The catch: the top leagues are the most accurately priced markets there are, and every bookmaker reacts quickly there. Differences tend to appear in smaller leagues, where maximum stakes are lower and bookmakers void pricing errors more readily. Which sports and markets suit sure betting is covered in arbitrage betting by sport.

5. At night: US sports, Asia and small tennis events

In Central European time, NBA, NHL and NFL games usually run between midnight and early morning, while Asian football and many small tennis tournaments take place in the morning or overnight. Some European bookmakers update prices for these events less often when fewer traders are on shift. That can create price differences.

Why the night is a poor fit for beginners:

• Thin markets: little money traded, low maximum stakes and big outliers that are often pricing errors.
• More voids: bookmakers review overnight bets the next morning and void obvious pricing errors (palps). If only one side of your sure bet stands, you are left with an ordinary bet carrying risk. See voided bets and palpable errors.
• You: tired people make typing mistakes, and if something goes wrong, customer support may not be reachable.

Just before kick-off, and in-play

Shortly before the start, prices are at their most accurate: all the information is priced in and markets carry their highest limits. Studies show closing prices are very good forecasts (Forrest, Goddard and Simmons, 2005). For sure bets that means fewer differences, but higher possible stakes when one does appear.

In-play, prices change by the second. Live sure bets make little sense for beginners because two bets can't be placed by hand fast enough. That is why ArbVantage shows only pre-match sure bets; live arbitrage betting explains why.

What this means for your routine

Sure betting isn't a job you need to get up at night for. A few calm habits help more than finding the perfect hour:

• Fixed windows. Pick two or three times that fit your day, for example in the morning before work, at lunchtime and in the early evening before matches.
• Don't chase. A missed sure bet costs nothing. A rushed one with a missing leg does.
• Plausibility before speed. Very large margins in small leagues and at night are more often pricing errors. Check them especially carefully.
• Remember fees. If one of your bookmakers passes on the Austrian betting fee, calculate with the price after the deduction (Austria betting tax).

How to find sure bets in the first place, by hand or with software, is in how to find arbitrage bets. ArbVantage checks prices continuously, events in the next few hours more often than later ones, so you don't have to look at the right minute: when you open it, you see what is there now. Mobile apps for iOS and Android with notifications are in development.

FAQ

What time of day has the most sure bets?

There is no fixed time. Sure bets appear when prices move and bookmakers react at different speeds: when new markets open, when line-ups or injuries become known, during morning price updates and at weekends with many matches.

Is it worth looking for sure bets at night?

For beginners usually not. US sports and Asian events run at night, but markets are thin, maximum stakes are low and pricing errors are often voided the next morning. Tiredness adds typing mistakes.

Are there more sure bets just before kick-off?

Rather fewer, because prices are most accurate shortly before the start. Around the publication of line-ups, about an hour before kick-off in many leagues, prices do move and sure bets can briefly appear. Maximum stakes are then usually higher than days before.

Why are there more sure bets at weekends?

Because more matches and markets are offered, which means more chances for price differences. In the top leagues bookmakers react quickly, though; differences tend to appear in smaller leagues, where limits are lower and pricing errors are voided more often.

Sources

• Croxson, K., Reade, J. J. (2014): Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting. The Economic Journal 124(575), 62–91
• Franck, E., Verbeek, E., Nüesch, S. (2013): Inter-market Arbitrage in Betting. Economica 80(318), 300–325
• Forrest, D., Goddard, J., Simmons, R. (2005): Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football. International Journal of Forecasting 21(3), 551–564
• Angelini, G., De Angelis, L. (2019): Efficiency of online football betting markets. International Journal of Forecasting 35(2), 712–721
• Kaunitz, Zhong, Kreiner (2017): Beating the bookies with their own numbers, arXiv:1710.02824

As of October 2026. The calculations are illustrations under the stated assumptions. Not betting, legal or tax advice. 18+.

Betting involves risk, sure bets included: odds move, bets get voided and accounts get limited. Only stake money you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, our responsible gambling page lists free help in Austria and Germany.